Simulating Families of Studies to Build Confidence in Defect Hypotheses1

While it is clear that there are many sources of variation from one development context to another, it is not clear a priori what specific variables will influence the effectiveness of a process in a given context. For this reason, we argue that knowledge about software process must be built from families of studies, in which related studies are run within similar contexts as well as very different ones. Previous papers have discussed how to design related studies so as to document as precisely as possible the values of likely context variables and be able to compare with those observed in new studies. While such a planned approach is important, we argue that an opportunistic approach is also practical. The approach would combine results from multiple individual studies after the fact, enabling recommendations to be made about process effective-